Special forces soldier arrested over $400K Polymarket bet tied to Maduro operation

A U.S. special forces soldier connected to the mission that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has been indicted by the U.S. Justice Department. The allegation centres on his use of the prediction platform Polymarket, where he is accused of placing multiple wagers on Maduro being removed from power — bets that reportedly generated more than $400,000 in returns.

Authorities state that Gannon Ken Van Dyke played a role in both the “planning and execution” of Operation Absolute Resolve, the military operation that led to Maduro’s removal and capture. According to investigators, Van Dyke placed bets on Polymarket tied to scenarios such as whether U.S. forces would enter Venezuela and whether Maduro would be ousted from power.

Van Dyke was taken into custody on Thursday, according to reports citing a law enforcement source.

Federal officials allege that his trades were informed by classified intelligence he had access to through his government position. They emphasise that Van Dyke had signed nondisclosure agreements explicitly barring him from sharing, publishing, or otherwise revealing any classified or sensitive details connected to military operations.

In December, Van Dyke reportedly created an account on Polymarket and began placing wagers focused on developments involving Venezuela and Maduro. Officials say that between December 27, 2025, and January 26, 2026, he placed 13 separate bets totalling approximately $33,034. These wagers included outcomes such as “U.S. Forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026” and “Maduro out by January 31, 2026.” After securing winnings, authorities allege that he attempted to obscure his connection to the account used for the trades.

Van Dyke now faces multiple charges, including violations of the Commodity Exchange Act, wire fraud, and engaging in unlawful financial transactions.

“Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain,” said Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. He added that while prediction markets are a relatively new development with broad public access, existing federal laws governing the protection of national security information remain fully applicable.

Prediction markets have faced scrutiny since their emergence, often drawing debate over ethics and regulation. Over the past year, their visibility and influence have grown significantly, with partnerships involving media outlets and sports organisations, as well as increasing participation from a wide range of users — including public officials. Lawmakers are currently considering legislation that would prohibit officials from using nonpublic information to place bets on such platforms.